A new generation is rushing towards the millennium
A NEW generation is rushing towards the millennium on skate boards, roller blades and mountain bikes, fuelled on super-caffeinated soft drinks and hand-rolled cigarettes, and dressing in a bizarre range of fashions, from elite designer duds to work boots and survival jackets.
Aged between 16 and 29, but rejecting the established label Generation X as "uncool", they believe that traditional corporate America has no use for them and that the year 2000 will bring violence and social mayhem, but probably not the actual end of the world. They talk to each other on computers and in coffee bars, follow strict vegetarian diets or eat only junk food, believe in body-piercing as a form of self-expression, and branding as a means of "bonding". They also use comic-book characters as role models.
In line with a popular rumour on the Internet, many of them even think that space aliens are living on earth, with their headquarters in Nederland, Colorado (population 700).
This may sound like the ravings of an eccentric sociologist, but it comes from that most pragmatic of social institutions in America: the marketplace. For the first time, a specialist marketing group in New York has conducted an exhaustive survey of the trends bubbling through a restless, rising generation.
The resulting report, called MindTrends, comes from two women in their thirties - Janine Misdom and Joanne De Luca - who have formed a research company called Sputnik. Their idea is strictly commercial: to explore the trend-setting fringes, in order to predict tomorrow's mainstream and thereby enable marketeers and manufacturers to have the right products on shelves and clothes racks at the right time. "The subjects," admits Misdom, "think they are doing a cultural survey, and that it's not a capitalist asking them questions."
They call their report a "pop-culture survey" and explain that businesses wanting to get ahead have to understand not just the latest trends as featured in the glossy magazines, but the "culture" which produces them. Sputnik is following in the footsteps of Faith Popcorn, the Madison Avenue guru whose knack of reading the minds of the Baby Boom generation has predicted a string of commercial trends.
These ranged from the choice of breakfast cereal - from sugary to multi-grain - to "cocooning", the reaction to job insecurity that has generated a slew of new stores catering to cosiness and kitchen crafts.
The last thing the new generation will be buying is sets of fancy linen sheets. Sputnik re-labels Generation X the Alternative Generation or the DIY Generation, but adds that the "do-it-yourself" refers not to home decorating but to an attitude to life. The young, they say, would rather form their own co-operatives than join an existing company for a salary, and invent their own style than follow that of someone else.
"Trend is just a word, unless you know the culture behind it, and why it emerged," says Misdom. "We aim to give marketeers the insight so that they can be proactive instead of reactive. Trends are going mainstream much quicker these days; it's a bubble-up theory starting on the streets."
Both women point to early trends from the wilder fringes of the youth market which are now going mainstream. Three years ago, teenagers at nightclubs told them that they thought jeans woven from plastic fabric would be "cool"; this summer, Levi Silver Tab and at least two other denim manufacturers are selling just such jeans. Teenage girls in the "punk" and "rap" clubs were beginning to wear nail varnish and lipstick in black and shades of dark blue; now those colours are on every make-up counter.
Among Sputnik's clients are Levi Strauss, Reebok, Pepsi, Boss, Gap Inc and Burlington Industries. And the signs are that they are doing well out of the research. The kids slamming around the parks on skateboards and roller blades, for example, explained how they liked to get energised on large quantities of cola drinks. The result has been a new wave of soft drinks laced with at least double the amounts of caffeine: Mountain Dew and Josta from Pepsi, and new colas called Jolt and even Mindbender.
Sputnik admits that it cannot point to a single model of the new generation consumer. There may never be a single style or way of life, or even two or three clearly defined variations as there were in the Sixties. Instead, its MindTrends report identifies five different "fringe" groups, all with blurred edges.
"The whole thing is about individualism," says De Luca. All are considered "pseudo-alienated", as they come to terms with a future of accelerating change, but that does not mean they don't buy things. They are already a market measured in billions of dollars.
The biggest spenders are the Hip Hop Nation - from the "rap" music culture which is increasingly spreading to all races. Many of them work or at least try to earn a living from the pop music industry, and all of them try to look as if they do. The established badge of the falling-down baggy jeans is on the way out, however.
Often at sales or second-hand shops, they are now buying Chanel, Gucci, Versace, Donna Karan, Ralph Lauren, Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger. They then put these clothes together, with care, into a "raggedy-Anne", oversized ensemble. Shoes must be by Gucci, Armani or Ferragamo. Wingtips, Oxfords and even spats are replacing the loud sneakers, kept only for sporty occasions or rough weather. Then they are worn with logo'd tracksuits from Nike, Adidas, Fila or Puma, and lots of heavy gold jewellery.
Their spelling and grammar may be poor, but the Hip Hop taste is refined. A Hip Hopper wants to be noticed drinking dry martinis and champagne, while eating fast food from the stripmall chains. "They want to be seen as being better than their parents," says Misdom. Choice of car is critical: it must be a Jeep, a Range Rover, or the four-wheel-drive limousine, the Chevrolet Suburban. "The Suburban," says Misden, in non-judgmental tone, "is right now the most stolen car in America."
The need for the four-wheel-drive reflects the generational concern about Armageddon, for traction will be useful post-apocalypse. It is an interest the Hip Hop Nation shares with the Speed Generation. These are the young who define themselves by their energy and dedication to "extreme sports" - motor-cycling, mountain-cycling, snow-boarding, surf-boarding, skate-boarding, and so on. They like caffeine, tobacco and Ecstasy, and scoff at health warnings, since long life is not among their expectations.
"They are freestylers," says Sputnik. "They're all about individual extremes." Their fashion interest runs to cut-off jeans and T-shirts, which should be printed with images from children's cartoons.
The Collective Intellect are the more educated and cultured fringe. They like Fifties retro home decoration, avant-garde films and good books, as well as Beatnik fashions carefully selected from The Gap, Urban Outfitters and Sears - all of which means they spend money.
These young people are keen on veganism, drive beat-up old cars, and anticipate a more limited Armageddon than the Hip Hoppers and Speedos. "It'll be a lot like the Thirties - entrenchment of poverty, rising unemployment, interest and inflation," says Rick, 21, a Chicago student, while Sarah, 19, from Austin, Texas, expects "the whole thing to blow up" in conflict between "religious fanatics" and "urban neo-tribalism".
The Soldiers for Culture are the new age Beatniks crowding the coffee bars of the big cities. They, too, are vegans, but they also believe in boycotting all animal-derived products. They like to buy - shoemakers take note - trainers made from fake suede instead of leather.
More significant is the second largest group after Hip Hop, the Club Kids, who also have the biggest fashion input. This wild-looking tribe can be seen flitting from club to club in the deep, dark hours, their clothes often home-made and based on cartoony versions of vampires, space aliens, fetishists and cross-dressers. Be warned, says Sputnik. They have an established record for starting trends - such as vinyl and plastic clothing, strange hues of make-up, the revival of platform shoes and body-piercing in places well beyond the ear-lobe or even the nipple. And it was the Club Kids who began the cult of faith in space aliens which has already made Fox TV's show The X-Files the television hit of 1996.
"What we're going to see next is the recycling of Gothic again," says Misdom. "All black. That keeps coming back." The Gothic duds will be worn with mountaineers' boots, big, outdoor anoraks and heavy coats decorated with the fluorescent strips of firemen's jackets.
Can Sputnik really predict the future? Well, maybe. It has it on camera from the young, and they have been right before.
One thing, at least, is certain: there is a lot of shopping to do in the last years of the Nineties.
